NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 12 (COVID Chaos)
It is impressive that we have gotten through 11 weeks of the NFL season without this pandemic wreaking chaos on scheduling and roster inactives. However, it appears that our luck has run out as a ton of COVID-related news has broke since Thanksgiving, impacting Week 12 and in some cases the remainder of the NFL season. To recap:
Steelers/Ravens got postponed from Thanksgiving evening to Tuesday night. Since we have learned that 20 players have been placed on the Reserve/COVID list - including positive tests from Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews.
James Conner tested positive for COVID shortly after the Steelers game was postponed.
Jonathan Taylor was placed on the COVID/reserve list.
The 49ers seem to have no place to play after Santa Clara County put a temporary ban on direct contact sports.
ALL of the QBs on the Broncos' roster have been deemed ineligible to play against the Saints after being deemed high-risk, close contacts - due to not wearing masks around Jeff Driskel who later received a positive test. After attempting to move their offensive quality control coach to the active roster (which was not allowed), they are turning to undrafted rookie practice squad WR Kendall Hinton to start at QB.
All of the above seems to still be developing, and the moral of the story is that you should play close attention to breaking news right up to kickoff. Be mindful of value opportunities that present themselves when players are deemed ineligible to play, but also look out for high ownership on those newsworthy players. Let’s get into a chaotic Week 12:
QB
Derek Carr $7,100
Carr balled out last week until a late-game interception that led to our new favorite meme:
He has a great matchup against the lowly Falcons defense and the only QB below $8,000 that I feel confident to put up 20+ points this week.
RB
Brian Hill $5,100
I have said before that when a starting RB is out, I prefer their backup to have previously had some usage in the backfield before I slot them in my lineup. Brian Hill checks that box, with 76 touches this season, and will take over the starting role for Atlanta this week with Todd Gurley ruled out. There is not really another threat in this backfield, so expect Hill to get 15+ touches this week.
David Montgomery $6,000
Though Montgomery has constantly disappointed this season, it is hard to pass on a volume RB facing a poor rushing defense.. Green Bay has given up the 3rd most points to fantasy RB and Montgomery averages almost 18 touches a game. If there is any week for him to put up production, it is this week - and I don’t mind taking a risk at a $6,000 pricepoint.
Jordan Wilkins $5,000
With Jonathan Taylor ruled out, I expect Wilkins’ role to expand most in the Colts backfield. Nyheim Hines has already carved out a role as the pass-catcher among the IND running back corps, but with Taylor out - they will be missing a ground threat. Indianapolis has trusted Wilkins to fill that role more than Hines this season.
WR
Justin Jefferson $7,000
Last week, I deemed Jefferson as the best big play threat in the NFL and he answered with another solid performance. This week, Adam Thielen is unlikely to play - which will give Jefferson even more opportunities for a big play or TD. He is a Top 5 WR this week.
Cooper Kupp $6,700
The WR duo in Los Angeles put up a monster game in Tampa on Monday night - combining for 23 catches and 275 yards. However, both are still priced under $7,000 despite being solid WRs. This is likely due to unpredictability of who will be the favorite weapon for Jared Goff week-to-week. Though, last week proved there is room for two weapons in this offense. I prefer Kupp slightly over Woods - as I prefer volume over TD upside.
Michael Pittman Jr $5,700
Phillip Rivers’ new favorite target has put up 27.4 pts the past three weeks. This is probably the only WR I feel comfortable slotting in under $6,000.
DEFENSE SPECIAL PLAY
Start the New Orleans defense this week in all of your leagues. Seriously, has a team ever played against a practice squad WR lining up under center? Unless we get another 2008 Dolphins Wildcat game, the Saints defense will put up an easy 3x+ value.