NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 11(Taysom Hill Fan Club Edition)
Another week in the NFL season. Another week full of injured fantasy starters. The question for DFS is “does their absence create value for our DFS lineups?”.
Last week we did not see any big performances from players stepping into expanded roles. This week, the injury list has grown even longer and odds are SOMEBODY breaks out. However, I am limiting my exposure to these fill-in plays with the exception of one man.
QB
Tua Tagovailoa $6,700
There are a lot of reasons to like Tua this week as your QB value play. He has been extremely efficient in his last two starts: completing 66% of his passes with 4 TD/0 INT. Another reason to like Tua is despite his lack of production running the ball, the opportunities have been there - as he has carried the ball 13 times over the last two weeks. There are not many QBs in the NFL who get designed runs called for them, so Tua will be in an elite group.
RB
Duke Johnson $6,000
I was a Week 10 advocate for Duke Johnson, as I liked his already established role in the Houston offense to transition nicely into a starting role with David Johnson out. While Duke did just about nothing with his opportunity (5.4 points), I do think there were some positive takeaways. Duke Johnson was in for 95% of the Texans’ offensive snaps and received all of the RB carries. He is in one of the very few backfields in the NFL that are not currently run by committee. Houston goes up against a tough New England defense this week, but I think that when you are looking around the $6,000 price range - opportunity is more imporant than matchup.
Damien Harris $5,800
There have been few bright spots in a rather disappointing 2020 campaign for Bill Belichick’s new look Patriots. Perhaps the brightest has been the emergence of Damien Harris as the leader of the New England backfield. Harris is 5th among NFL RBs in YPG and 5th in YPC - so how is he priced outside the Top 25 RBs this week? Unfortunately, the answer to that has been cannibalization of TDs in the red zone from Cam Newton and limited role in passing game.
Despite the limitations of Harris’ week-to-week FPG, are there really 25 other RBs that you would rather start this week? The Patriots are facing one of the worst rushing defenses in the league this week. If Harris sneaks into the endzone - he is likely a Top 10 RB this week.
Kalen Ballage $5,800
I never thought I would be advocating to start a player who couldn’t make the Chargers opening day roster, couldn’t carve out a role in the 2019 Miami backfield, and was waived by the NEW YORK JETS less than a month after signing - but here we are. 2020, man. Ballage has been a workhorse over the last two weeks with the extended absence of Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson. With a great matchup against a porous NYJ run defense (REVENGE GAME ANYONE?) combined with 40 touches in the past two games - Ballage is a Top 15 RB this week at a sub-$6,000 price.
WR
Terry McLaurin $7,300
I don’t think that anyone would argue against McLaurin being a Top 10 WR this year, but I would say there is even a case for him being Top 5. Coming into Week 11, McLaurin ranks 5th in targets per game, yard per game, and 20+ yd reception per game. He also ranks first among WR in yards after catch. The only thing limiting his ascent into Top 5 WR discussion this year has been TD upside. This week, McLaurin faces a Bengals defense that has given up the second-most receiving TDs in the NFL.
Diontae Johnson & Chase Claypool $6,400
Is this cheating? It might be. Hell, I almost even threw JuJu Smith-Schuster in here. The Steelers’ passing game has been able to sustain three solid WR2 this season - with almost 200 targets distributed pretty evenly between the three WRs. Claypool has provided big play upside, with 14+ YPC and 9 TDs. Johnson has provided volume upside with 10+ targets in 5 of 8 games. JuJu has provided consistency with 10+ FPG in 6 of 9 games.
The only reason I like Claypool & Johnson here is that I think they have more upside for a big game. They have also been red hot over the past two weeks: combining for 24 REC on 45 TGT for 318 yds and 3TD.
Justin Jefferson $6,700
The best big play threat in the NFL is currently… Justin Jefferson? Jefferson & DK Metcalf are neck-and-neck on most big play metrics through Week 10, including YPC and 20+ Receptions. The big difference between the two is that Jefferson is putting up big numbers and delivering big plays as efficient as anyone in the NFL - with the 7th best catch rate among all WR. That is an insane combination of big play ability + efficiency, as others among the top in NFL catch rate are short-play specialists like Tyler Boyd, Cole Beasley, Curtis Samuel, etc. You can’t go wrong slotting the best big play threat in the NFL into your DFS lineup when he is priced outside the Top 15 WR.
TE
Taysom Hill $4,500
I am so HYPED about this play, even though I am sure that Hill will be 90%+ owned in most DFS contests but I DON’T CARE. This is a fantasy football Haley’s Comet. We are getting QB production with dual-threat QB upside in the TIGHT END position. Especially in a year when the TE position has been an absolute wasteland outside of Travis Kelce, this is a 10000% lock in all of my lineups. Taysom Hill should be in every one of your lineups this week and will likely be owned in any winning lineup. I don’t care that everyone will have him, I am just excited for the spectacle.