NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 10 (Injury Edition)

With a ton of backfields decimated with injuries going into Week 10, there is A LOT to digest in terms of which RBs provide value in DFS formats this week.

So, we are going to do our value plays column a bit different this week and take a look at each backfield that is impacted and find the value plays:

Houston Texans: Duke Johnson $5,800

David Johnson has carried the load in Houston this season, but has been placed on IR with a concussion. One thing I look for when plugging in backup RBs into a DFS lineup, is how many touches they have this season. I prefer when we get a RB taking over starting duties after already having a role in the rushing game vs being thrust into the starting role with no reps. Duke Johnson has had 5+ touches in every game backing up David Johnson and got 20 touches after DJ went out last week.

Duke Johnson checks all the boxes this week: veteran RB, pass catcher, decent matchup, and perhaps most importantly: terrible weather in Cleveland where Houston will be forced to keep the ball on the ground.

Cleveland Browns: Stay Away

I actually expect both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to have productive weeks during Chubb’s first game back from injury. As mentioned above, the weather looks rough in Cleveland this week, so both players should get 15+ touches.

However, I am not comfortable paying $7,500 for Hunt or $8,200 for Chubb when there is the possibility that Cleveland runs with a hot hand in the backfield. You can’t afford to pay that much and have your RB put up single digits. Let’s monitor the Cleveland backfield for one week and re-assess next week. Stay away!

Carolina Panthers: Mike Davis $5,400

This is the easiest pick on the board this week and everyone will own Davis, rightly so! During the six weeks McCaffery missed with injury - Mike Davis put up 15 PPG. McCaffrey has been ruled out this week with an AC Joint injury.

Some DFS players might be scared away with Davis going against the top-ranked Tampa Bay rushing defense. However, I will note that losing Vita Vea for the season is a HUGE blow for Tampa AND McCaffrey did see success in their Week 1 matchup (27 pts).

Los Angeles Chargers: Stay Away

I have no idea what to make of this backfield, even when healthy. This week, Justin Jackson has been ruled out - who has been a decent options when healthy. This leaves us with Joshua Kelley ($5,200), Kalen Ballage ($5,300), and Troymaine Pope ($4,500).

I see a pretty even split in workload, though I am sure one of these players will go off. That being said, if you want to gamble on one of these low cost options - go for it! But I am staying away.

Cincinnati Bengals: Giovanni Bernard ($6,200)

Bernard has been a value play with Mixon out, and it won’t change this week despite a tough matchup vs Pittsburgh. Expect 15-20 touches for Bernard with some touchdown upside. He is a no-brainer in PPR leagues at a low pricepoint.

Seattle Seahawks: Stay Away

Chris Carson & Carlos Hyde have both been ruled out for another week which leaves Seattle turning to DeeJay Dallas ($5,600) & Travis Homer ($5,300). While Dallas is completely TD dependent, Homer does provide a little upside in the passing game, especially against a stout Los Angeles defensive line.

If you had to pick one, Homer is the play here in PPR leagues - but I think there are much better options under $6,000.

San Francisco 49ers: Jerick McKinnon ($5,500)

The Niners backfield has been anything but predictable this year. Over their last 4 games, 4 different players have led the team in rushing: Mostert, Wilson Jr, Hasty, and McKinnon. Kyle Shannahan has been unpredictable, but I believe McKinnon is the best and most versatile player in the backfield with Mostert and Coleman ruled out.

DFS players were burned by McKinnon in Week 7, which was supposed to be his “coming out party” with him thrust into the starting job due to injuries. Shannahan then gave a healthy McKinnon 3 total touches for -0.1 pts. I think while McKinnon has bounced back in the last two weeks, he still qualifies as a post-hype sleeper.

Chicago Bears: Stay Away

David Montgomery has been ruled out with a concussion this week vs Minnesota, which would have provided a juicy matchup for a RB who needs a big week. Chicago is left with Ryan Nall ($5,300) and Cordarelle Patterson ($4,700 @ the WR position).

I would have loved Patterson as an extremely cheap value play with upside in the rushing game if Matt Nagy was still calling plays. Bears’ fans know that Nagy has a weird obsession with getting their veteran WR rushing attempts, but Nagy actually passed playcalling duties over to Bill Lazor this week.

With the uncertainty of a new play-caller in Chicago, I don’t feel comfortable slotting in Patterson or Nall who has zero carries on the year.