NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 5

I am so back. We had a GREAT week 4, delivering 3x+ value on Matt Stafford (3.1x), CeeDee Lamb (4.1x), and Dalton Schultz (3.1x), while also hitting some nice value picks like Ronald Jones (2.8x) and Gabriel Davis (2x).

QB

Gardner Minshew: $7,200

Minshew has had three 20+ point games this season and thrown 40+ times in his last three games. He is the definition of an average quarterback but might have the highest floor of any QB2. This is a safe play for the price.

Kyle Allen: $6,000

The newly appointed Washington Football Team QB is the lowest priced QB on the board this week, as he is still priced as a backup. While there are not a ton of weapons on the Washington offense, I like the fact that he has recent starting experience and is playing for the same head coach as last year. Allen had multiple TDs in 6 of his 13 starts in 2019. That’s all you need to deliver value, and the risk is low.

RB

This is a week where I am fading a few guys who will likely have high ownership due to week 4 injuries. I expect Kareem Hunt and Joshua Kelley to be among the highest owned players in week 5, but my strategy is to focus on some of the “less sexy” players who I think will get more opportunity. There is no doubt Hunt & Kelley have high upside, but I think their counter-parts (D’Ernest Johnson & Justin Jackson) will carve out their own roles and disappoint owners.

James Robinson: $6,600

With four weeks of data under our belts, we know a few things about James Robinson. The Jaguars feel comfortable giving him a heavy workload (18+ touches per game) as shown by OC Jay Gruden’s comments this week on getting him more touches in the second half. Also, Robinson is still priced very favorably - his price/FPPG shows he will avg 2.6x value.

David Johnson: $6,400

Johnson’s four game start with his new team can be defined as “mediocre”. I am rolling the dice on DJ to have a bounce back week against Jacksonville, as I think they will be a bit more desperate to rely on Deshaun Watson’s arm vs a weak opponent. Also, we are uncertain what the end of the “Bill O’ Brien Experience” means for the Houston running game. Was Bill feeding DJ touches to justify his awful Deandre Hopkins trade? Will the new OC do the same? A lot of unknown going into week 5 but I am willing to gamble on a starting RB at a low price.

Myles Gaskin: $5,500

Myles Gaskin has some post-hype sleeper value this week. After a great performance in week 3, under the Thursday Night Football spotlight, Gaskin put up just 7.7 pts against Seattle in week 4. The upside to a poor showing in week 4 is that Gaskin is still the man in the Miami backfield. Nobody else ran the ball more than 3 times (besides Ryan Fitzpatrick). The 49ers defense has been successful against the run this year; however, they are missing Nick Bosa and have faced the lowly NYJ + Barkley-less NYG backfields over the past two weeks. I expect Gaskin to hit at least 2x value.

WR

Since it feels like cheating, I am not going to put DK Metcalf and CeeDee Lamb here for the third week in a row. But I do want you to know that they are still severely overpriced and you should look for ways to fit them into your lineup.

Keenan Allen: $6,800

Justin Herbert has been named the starting QB for the Los Angeles Chargers moving forward, and nobody shouldb benefit more than Keenan Allen. Herbert has targeted Allen 30 times in his two starts. He is a top 5 WR moving forward, priced as the WR12 this week. Get that value in your lineups while you still can.

Jerry Jeudy: $5,500 & N’Keal Harry: $5,200

Looks like this game is being postponed, so I am quickly pivoting to…

Terry McLaurin: $6,300

7th in Targets, 6th in Yards, 9th in Catches - priced as the WR20 this week. There are questions about his role in the Washington offense with a new QB under center, but Washington would be foolish not to feature their best player prominently.

Diontae Johnson: $5,800

Another solid candidate for a post-hype sleeper due to missing the last two weeks with an injury. Johnson started the season with 14 catches on 23 targets over his first two games. He likely has the highest upside in the sub-$6,000 prie range.

TE

Dalton Schultz: $5,300