NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 4
We got back on track in Week 3 with a few solid value plays that could have won you a contest, had you surrounded them with the right players. Our biggest play during Week 3 could have been even bigger if not for this…
QB
Matt Stafford: $7,200
To be clear, I really think the go-to strategy this week is paying up for your QB (i.e. Wilson, Murray, Allen) and stacking their respective WR in your lineups. That being said, this article is about VALUE plays so if you are looking for a QB outside the Top 10, I expect Stafford to have a nice week. Stafford has been consistent through the first three weeks of the season - scoring 17, 17, and 18 points. I expect that to be his floor this week with a higher ceiling as he plays a banged up Saints secondary and will have to throw the ball to keep up with a high octance New Orleans offense.
Joe Burrow: $7,400
I am riding with Burrow until his arm falls off, which seems possible after throwing the ball 141 times through 3 weeks. It seems like Burrow will be asked to throw the ball 40+ times every week which is great for establishing his floor at around 15 points. I think Burrow is a low risk play this week with high upside in what I feel like will be a shootout? Something about CIN-JAX tells me it will be a 42-38 game.
RB
Ronald Jones: $5,600
RAHNNNNN! I am hoping the above represents the Chargers defense this week. The last time Ronald Jones got featured in this column, he got shown up by Leonard Fournette. This week, Fournette has been ruled out. Jones needs to prove himself to be the #1 option in the Tampa Bay backfield and will have no better opportunity than this week. I expect 15+ touches this week for Jones, despite losing out on some third down work to Lesean McCoy.
David Montgomery: $5,800
The workload has been there for Montgomery this season, and with Tarik Cohen ruled out for the season, Montgomery’s role is set to expand. The one thing holding David Montgomery back from being on the verge of RB1 status has been Tarik Cohen’s presence catching balls out of the backfield. Montgomery has about 50 touches on the year and Cohen had 20 until his season-ending injury. If most of those touches go Montgomery’s way, we may see him as one of the most utilized RBs in the NFL through the rest of the season. I only expect his price to rise moving forward.
Myles Gaskin $5,400
After solid production on limited work through the first two weeks of the season, Gaskin got his opportunity in Week 3 and put on a great performance. Gaskin got 27 touches against the Jaguars and caught all 5 of his targets. His goal line work was vulture by short-yardage specialist Jordan Howard and that trend is likely to continue through the season, but I do not see anyone getting more touches in the sub-$6,000 range than Gaskin.
WR
Metcalf $6,900 & Cee Dee Lamb $5,600
I am BACK with the 2-for-1 and this week it features the same two players as last week. I think that DK Metcalf is a Top 10 WR (with upside for Top 5) every week and still not as priced as such. The reason I lumped these guys together again this week is because of their big play upside. 5 of Metcalf’s 12 catches this year have been for 20+ yards and he has turned that into 3 (almost 4) TDs. Cee Dee Lamb has that same big play upside with 5 plays for 20+ yards on 16 catches, but just has not turned those into TDs. Once Cee Dee Lamb starts to score on those big plays, he will be a Top 10 WR.
Gabe Davis $4,600 & Justin Watson $4,600
For the first time in the history of DFS Value Plays, we have back-to-back 2-for-1’s. Thrilling stuff. I grouped these guys together here as we dig DEEP into the scrap pile for a gap filler at the WR position. I like both of these guys to get some snaps in the WR3 position. Davis, a rookie out of UCF, has looked solid in limited playing time through 3 weeks and is in a high-powered Bills passing offense. On the other side, Watson will benefit from injuries to Chris Godwin (ruled out) and Scotty Miller (Questionable) and should see a few targets from Tom Brady.
TE
Dalton Schultz: $4,900
Since Blake Jarwin went down with a season-ending injury, Schultz took over his snaps and has received 16 targets the last two weeks. Despite being the 5th option in the Dallas passing game, I like the TD upside for the price on Dalton Schultz.
Logan Thomas: $4,900
Third times a charm? I just can’t quit Logan Thomas despite him under-delivering every time I start him. The opportunities are there, with 24 targets through 3 weeks (fourth among TEs). However, he just hasn’t been able to bring them in with a 50% catch rate. If Logan Thomas does not deliver 15+ points this week, I PROMISE I will swear him off.
