NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 3
Woof. Last week was a tough one for the column as I swung and missed on the majority of my value picks. The only plays I got right were 1) the emergence of Diontae Johnson and 2) fading Emmanuel Sanders in favor of Tre’Quan Smith.
The big misses came at the RB position where I thought Ronald Jones III and Nyheim Hines would emerge as the leaders in their respective backfields. Of course that prediction lead to huge days for Jonathan Taylor and Leonard Fournette.
Though the first two weeks, I have been solid on WR picks but below average on my RB plays, so tail at your own risk! See below for my week three plays:
QB
Joe Burrow: $7,400
Joe Exotic is coming off a long week of rest after putting up an absurd stat line (61 passing attempts!) in Thursday Night Football. Now obviously week two was likely a statistical outlier, but it does show the trust the Cincinnati coaching staff have in their young QB.
Teddy Bridgewater: $6,800
With Christian McCaffery out for a few weeks due to a high ankle sprain, the Carolina Panthers will need to rely on Teddy Bridgewater’s arm to remain in games. Teddy has not been great through the first two weeks, but I am intrigued by the opportunity and could see Teddy needing to sling it 40+ times per game. Besides – who else are you going to plug-in around the $6,000 range? Nick Mullens? Jeff Driskel?
RB
Jonathan Taylor: $6,700
Last week, I faded Jonathan Taylor in favor of Nyheim Hines because I thought Hines was more of a “Phillip Rivers RB”. I was obviously wrong and I won’t make the mistake twice. Here is a bold prediction to make up for my miss last week: Taylor finishes as a Top 3 RB this week despite being priced outside the Top 15.
Jerick McKinnon: $5,700
This will be a chalk play as most are high on McKinnon with Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert out, but I am not sure you can pass up the value for the price. Plug McKinnon into your lineup this week and spend the rest of your money elsewhere. He is due for 15+ touches and should be relied on in the checkdown passing game with Nick Mullens under center.
Dion Lewis: $5,500
The big news coming out of the NYG backfield this week was the signing of Devonta Freeman to replaced the injured Saquon Barkley. However, when was the last time a RB has signed with a new team and made a big impact just days later. I expect Dion Lewis to lead the NYG rushing attack in touches this week and especially like his upside in the passing game.
WR
DK Metcalf: $6,500 & CeeDee Lamb: $5,600
Here’s a 2-for-1 special because the rationale is the same. Vegas expects this to be the highest scoring game of the weekend, so DAL/SEA has shootout written all over it. I am looking for guys to play in both passing attacks and I like the guys with a knack for big plays vs their higher priced teammates.
AJ Green: $5,900
AJ Green has looked his age over the first two weeks of the season, catching just 8 of 22 targets that have come his way from Joe Burrow. But let’s look on the bright side here, he’s had 22 targets. That is good for 5th most in the NFL. He is clearly Joe Burrow’s favorite target and I love the opportunity / price point ratio here. Why not stack him with Joe Burrow?
TE
Noah Fant: $5,800
Denver’s top receiving threat is out for the year. Their WR2 is dealing with a nagging rib injury. Fant will presumably see increased opportunities in Week 3 to build of his stellar first two weeks of the season. He is priced as the TE10 this week despite putting up TE4 numbers.
Logan Thomas: $4,900
I picked Logan Thomas last week and it did not pay off for me (4.6 pts) but I am DOUBLING DOWN because I think Thomas is ready for a breakout. Why? Because I saw the tweet below: