NFL DFS Value Plays – Week 1
QB
Ryan Fitzpatrick: $6,400
I think a lot of DFS lineups will avoid Fitzpatrick, simply for the reason that he is playing perhaps the top passing defense in the league. Low ownership should be a positive in some of the larger tournaments. When searching for QBs, I ignore name brands and simply look for “where can I get 4x value for the price”? Fitzpatrick hit 20+ points in half of his starts last year. I like his chances to hit 3.5x-4x value this week, despite the tough matchup.
Cam Newton: $7,300
I can see this being a popular pick this week, but I like the rushing upside Cam provides at a mid-tier price. If Newtown can put up 10 points from his feet, I trust his arm to put up an additional 15-20 pts in a new-look Patriots offense vs a good matchup.
RB
Boston Scott: $4,700
Scott will see huge ownership this week with Miles Sanders ruled out for Week 1. High projected ownership will not scare me away – as the value of 15-20 potential touches at that price is too good to pass up.
Kenyan Drake: $6,600
As shown in my Pre-Season NFL Win O/U column, I love the Cardinals offense this year. Drake was a nice addition to the Arizona offense and improved their run efficiency when they took over the backfield. I like Drake to put up Top 10 RB production this week at a nice price.
Tarik Cohen: $5,200
If you are looking for a cheap fill-in for your high priced lineups, I like Cohen as an upside play in the sub-$5,500 range. While Montgomery is expected to play in Week 1, I expect Cohen to take on a bit more of the workload this week. His floor is 10 touches if Montgomery sees his normal workload, but I expect 15-20 touches for Cohen.
WR
Calvin Ridley: $6,600
I smell a high-scoring game in Atlanta this week. Vegas has this matchup as the highest point total among all afternoon games. I’m buying (and potentially stacking) players in both passing attacks and like Ridley as a WR1 at a WR2 price.
Emmanuel Sanders: $5,600
Sanders is priced as the 35th WR this week. He is the WR2 in the high-octane New Orleans offense and unlike past matchups vs TB, this Bucs team will put up points. I expect a high-scoring game with 40+ pass attempts from Brees.
Robby Anderson: $5,600
I am intrigued by a new-look Panthers offense with a passing attack coordinated by Joe Bray and led by Teddy Bridgewater. While DJ Moore, is far and away the best weapon in the pass game, Anderson has built his NFL career on big plays. Why not roll the dice with Anderson for a big play (or two) vs a sub-par Raiders secondary.
TE
Hayden Hurst: $5,200
Hurst will be in all of my lineups this week and is probably my favorite play on this list. Hurst replaces Austin Hooper in Matt Ryan’s offense this year, and I expect him to receive a lot of the 97 targets Hooper had last year. The combination of opportunity, a high scoring game, and a great matchup makes for Hurst to be an easy TE1 pick this week.
Rob Gronkowski: $5,500
Gronkowski as a “value” pick? I know that sounds weird but Gronk is appropriately priced this week as the 8th TE given his uncertain role on a new team. Despite many analysts picking against Gronk as a top TE this year. I don’t mind taking a gamble on a proven big play threat at this price.