2020 NFL Win Total O/U featuring Bicycle Lock Review videos!
We made it. The 2020 NFL season is here and WE DESERVE THIS. After 6 months of sitting at home watching YouTube (more on that in a second), we now get to spend more time sitting at home, but this time football is on. After a summer of unsuccessful desperation bets – ranging from darts to table tennis – we finally have our bread and butter back on the table.
While looking at every NFL team’s projected win totals and determining my over/under picks, I realized that I needed a ranking system to display the confidence I had in each pick. This is where my newly found quarantine hobby came into handy: watching YouTube video’s of a lawyer picking bike locks.
You may know the Lock Picking Lawyer already, as he has an extremely successful YouTube channel (2MM+ subscribers) and a dope ass logo.
While I am undecided on whether his channel serves as a resource for consumers looking to protect their bicycles or as a potential thief’s encyclopedia, I have determined that he has provided me with content to create a powerful ranking system of my NFL picks. What better way to grade my “locks” than with the names of the Lock Picking Lawyers’ most highly recommended bicycle locks.
Therefore, I present to you my 2020 NFL Win Total O/U picks featuring brief descriptions of a bicycle lock.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: FAHGETTABOUDIT
Excellent name for a bicycle lock and an even better name for my most confident picks. The Kryptonite New York Fahgettaboudit Lock receives a glowing review from the Lock Pick Lawyer as he is “relatively certain they will survive” – which is also as best a description I can give for these picks.
Side note: I don’t know much about bicycle locks but I am assuming that if your hydraulic cutter EXPLODES during a cutting attempt, your bike (or bet) is safe and sound.
PICK: Arizona Cardinals OVER 7.5 wins
I love the Cardinals this season for two obvious reasons: Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury.
Murray had an under-the-radar year, putting on one of the best rookie QB performances in recent memory with 3,500 Passing Yards, 60%+ completion rate, and 500+ Rushing Yards. I can’t help thinking about the leap that Lamar Jackson took last year when thinking about Murray’s potential in year two.
One of the reasons Kyler Murray looked so good last year was the coaching ability of Kliff Kingsbury. The rookie head coach was able to adapt to less-than league average personnel around Murray and still set him up for success. Kingsbury buried his offense’s gap in offensive weapons by setting up his young QB with short passes (Murray had one of the lower YPA in the league) and utilize the changing landscape in the Arizona backfield by setting up newly-acquired Kenyan Drake with efficient runs from 2WR and 3WR sets.
The 2020 Arizona Cardinals are favored in 5 of their 16 games, which leaves us looking for three more wins if they perform like expected. 6 of the 11 games are NFC West conference games and the other 4 are Dallas, Buffalo, New England, Philadelphia. I don’t see why this team can’t easily win 2 from each of those buckets.
PICK: Baltimore Ravens OVER 11.5 Wins
We know the Baltimore Ravens are a great football team, but the question going into 2020 is “are they due for regression”? Perhaps, but I don’t think they go from 14 wins to less than 12. The best rushing team in the league added JK Dobbins to their backfield and one the most efficient defenses in the NFL added Calais Campbell to their line. The Ravens are a well-oiled machine that might get stopped short of the championship, but not of 12 wins.
PICK: Dallas Cowboys OVER 9.5 Wins
I firmly believe that replacing Jason Garrett with an actual Cowboy would be worth at least a 2 win improvement. Luckily, Mike McCarthy is neither a cowboy or Jason Garrett. Dallas has a few other positives going into 2020 that I think net out to a 10+ win season.
Adding CeeDee Lamb into the equation should not only provide another threat for the Dallas offense, but also open up the box for Ezekiel Elliott who was significantly more efficient running the ball in 3WR sets vs 2 WR sets in 2019.
On top of an added playmaker, the Dallas offense will also have the luxury of an easier defensive schedule – rating as one of the most favorable YOY variances in the NFL.
Finally, Dallas was 1-6 in close games last year, which is slightly surprising considering they rank as one of the better offenses in the league.
I don’t think too many things need to go in Dallas’ favor to add 2 additional wins to their 2019 total.
PICK: Seattle Seahawks OVER 9.5 Wins
While I have used close games to bring up concern around some teams’ sustainability, I think that the Seahawks’ close game record in 2019 (10-2!!!) show how clutch their QB is. The historical seasons from Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes overshadowed another stellar season from Russell Wilson, but I am here to remind you that he has a case for the best player in the NFL.
Seattle is favored in 14 of their games going into the 2020 season. I like the disparity between their Vegas Win/Loss total and game lines.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: EVOLUTION CHAIN
If the Lock Picking Lawyer says he uses a bicycle lock, you know your bike is staying put. The Kryptonite Evolution Chain Lock has more flexibility than a U-lock and is 10MM thick which LPL claims is the biggest you can go while still remaining portability (…ladies?). Even though our favorite Lock Picking Lawyer doesn’t HAVE TO pick the bike lock he personally uses - guess what? He does. Absolutely unhinged.
PICK: Chicago Bears UNDER 8.5 Wins
Hot(-ish) take: the lack of offseason and pre-season had a bigger impact on the Bears than any other team in the NFL. Most would argue that the offseason lull more heavily impacted teams with Rookie QBs (Cincinnati) or overhauled offenses (Tampa Bay), but let me hit you with THIS:
The COVID-19 offseason made Mitchell Trubisky the starting QB of the Chicago Bears.
Scary.
Mitchell Trubisky is not the answer for Chicago. I am not saying Nick Foles is the long-term answer, but I think he could lead this team to the playoffs. Trubisky cannot.
Mitchell Trubisky makes the offense predictable. He rated last in the NFL in Yard per Attempt, and not in a fun “Kliff Kingsbury is drawing up creative plays to get the offense in a groove and let our playmakers work” way but more in a “I can’t complete passes and I panic under pressure” way.
The Bears defense was not as good in 2019 as the previous year, but they were still really good. The addition of Robert Quinn and a healthy version of Akeim Hicks makes them the type of defense that can carry a competent QB to 10 wins and the playoffs. Some would say a QB like….Nick Foles.
PICK: Cleveland Browns OVER 8.5 Wins
One of the most talented offensive rosters in football added a top-tier OT, playmaking tight end, and blue chip left tickle during the offseason. Also, if we believe in addition by subtraction, they also booted their incompetent offensive coordinator + head coach.
If Kevin Stefanski can use Baker Mayfield in Cleveland like he utilized Kirk Cousins in Minnesota, then Baker Mayfield can be a better Kirk Cousins in Minnesota in Cleveland. Does that make sense? I like the Browns this year.
PICK: Denver Broncos UNDER 7.5 Wins
Someone explain the Drew Lock hype. Was it his cool sideline dance? Is it his cool name? Is it that you are rooting for an underdog because he has tiny hands? Or perhaps it was his deceptively solid performance in his 5 starts?
I am here to tell you not to buy into the hype yet. Drew Lock was great on easy throw but abysmal on deep throws during the 2019 season. In Warren Sharp’s season preview, he a chart that shows Drew Lock’s Comp % by Depth on Early Downs. He is OFF THE CHART. IN THE WRONG WAY.
I know that is one statistic and a small sample size, but if Denver wants to improve on their 2019 campaign without Von Miller, Drew Lock needs to be the answer. He’s not.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: MY NEIGHBOR JONATHAN’S BIKE
Real “Lockies” (my term of affection for LPL subscribers) know that the Lock Picking Lawyer says the BEST defense from bicycle thieves is not riding a bike that attracts thieves. That is why our next confidence level is brought to you by my neighbor Jonathan’s shitty bike. These picks may not be flashy but they will get you to where you (or Jonathan) want to be.
PICK: Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 5.5 Wins
Does the addition of Joe Burrow add 4 wins to the 2019 Cincinnati Bengals? That is A LOT to ask of a rookie QB.
The 2020 Bengals looks kind of like the 2019 Bengals outside of Burrow taking over center. They have a few new pieces on the defensive side of the ball and are bringing back AJ Green, but Green is 32 and has not played a game in almost 2 years.
I don’t see enough positive change to warrant a 4 game swing for the 2020 Bengals.
PICK: Buffalo Bills UNDER 9 Wins
The answer to whether or not the Buffalo Bills make the playoffs in 2020 is easy to figure out. Josh Allen needs to build on his sophomore campaign. He certainly improved in 2019, but Allen still sits at league average in most stats. The Buffalo offense needs Allen’s big arm to present big play threats, which he was unsuccessful at in 2019 – with a completion % below league average on deep throws. The addition of Stefon Diggs adds another weapon, but Allen’s biggest obstacle will be the Buffalo schedule. They are set to see the most difficult YOY variance in quality of passing defense’s faced. I don’t think that bodes well for Josh Allen’s success this year.
PICK: Houston Texans UNDER 7.5 Wins
We all know that Houston had a heavily criticized offseason. However, for a season total O/U, I am not worried about long term cap space impacts. What I am worried about is consistency, and it is going to be hard for Houston to find their rhythm when they need to replace 45% of their offensive touches from 2019. Especially when they start the season against the two best teams in the NFL.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: KRYPTONITE KEEPER U-LOCK
These are the picks that I just barely feel good putting down on paper, which sounds a lot like the Lock-Picking Lawyer’s thoughts on the Kryptonite Keeper. He titled his review on the Kryptonite Keeper, “The Worst Bike Lock You should Consider Using” - which is how I feel about the picks below. Rather than sharing his review for the Keeper, I am instead going to share this incredible review of a lock called the “Ottolock”. The Ottolock looks a lot like a ziptie, which makes it even funnier when LPL cuts it in half (in silence) in two seconds. Enjoy.
PICK: Atlanta Falcons UNDER 7.5 Wins
Where did the 2020 Atlanta Falcons get better vs their 2019 campaign? They swapped Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman for Hayden Hurst and the 2020 knee-less edition of Todd Gurley. On defense they made several personnel changes but all-in-all will likely be a net neutral on that side of the ball.
The story of the 2019 Atlanta Falcons was one of two halves, with a 1-7 start and a 6-2 finish. Which Atlanta Falcons team will we get this year? Was the 2019 second half success due to improvement or scheduling? All I know that is that Dan Quinn better figure out because the 2020 Falcons come out of the gate against two of the best teams in the NFC (vs SEA, @ DAL) and close the season with 2 games against the Tom Bray-led Buccannerrs and 1 against the reigining Super Bowl MVP. There is no time to “find your identity” with a schedule like that.
PICK: Carolina Panthers OVER 5.5 Wins
I have no idea what to think about the 2020 Carolina Panthers. They are set to have 4 new starters on Offense and 5 new starters on Defense. The Panthers have a new QB, a new offensive coordinator, and a new coach with almost no NFL coaching experience.
Here’s what I think I know about the 2020 Carolina Panthers:
Christian McCaffrey is the best all-around RB in football and Kyle Allen didn’t look that bad last year? So MAYBE the Carolina offense can be potent with a name-brand QB and new OC?
They turned over a lot of their defense in the offseason but their defense wasn’t very good last year so MAYBE that’s a good thing?
The 2019 Panthers were one of the worst in one-score games last year (2-6 record) so MAYBE they are due for some luck in the other direction?
All of those factors signal that MAYBE the 2020 Panthers will be better than the 2019 Panthers? So, let’s add one win to their 2019 total and smash the over.
PICK: Detroit Lions UNDER 6.5 Wins
The odds on Matthew Stafford winning Comeback Player of the Year (+700) are looking juicy right now, but I am not sure that will be enough to lead them into the playoffs.
The year-over-year turnover on both sides of the ball for Detroit is minimal, so the big X-factor here is obviously Stafford’s health. If we look at 2019, the Stafford-led Lions went 3-4-1 with 3 of the 4 losses coming to playoff teams. The Stafford-less Lions went 0-8, with half of those losses coming by less than a score. That should spell a big improvement on 2019’s campaign, which puts the O/U at a perfect spot.
This one is a coin flip for me but I’ll take the under.