NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 2

Week one is in the books and, in terms of DFS performances, things seemed to be relatively status quo. For reference, (outside of tight end) the top three performances at each position were name brands:

• QBs: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Jackson, Murray

• RBs: Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott

• WR: Davante Adams, Adam Thielen, Calvin Ridley.

Outside the big names, some noteworthy performances included: Cam Newton’s first game as Tom Brady’s successor, Malcolm Brown take over the Rams backfield, Darius Slayton establish himself as Daniel Jones’ favorite target, and Dallas Goedert outshine Zach Ertz.

I had a so-so week with my value plays, hitting on Cam Newton (3.5x value), Calvin Ridley (4.5x value) and Robby Anderson (3.5x value). I also gave out a few duds Ryan Fitzpatrick (0.8x value), Tarik Cohen (0.9x value) and Rob Gronkowski (0.2x value).

With a week in the books I am hoping to learn from my mistakes with a little data to analyze. Let’s right this ship with some Week 2 value plays:

QBs

Deshaun Watson ($7,900)

This might be the week to pay up for a Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes at QB, but if you are looking to save a little salary, it is worth considering Deshaun Watson at $7,900. I have found that a nice formula for fantasy success at the QB position includes: upside for rushing touchdowns, likelihood to play from behind, and high projected O/U. Watson fits these categories and has also proven himself capable of putting up elite fantasy production. You could get the top-scoring QB this week for < $8,000. I don’t hate that.

Daniel Jones ($6,900)

Digging much deeper into viable starting QBs, we find Daniel Jones. While Jones doesn’t exactly check the same boxes as Deshaun Watson, he does provide rushing upside AND should see a fair amount of opportunity through the air as he attempted 40+ passes in week one. He is my favorite sub $7,000 QB this week and could be a great value play should he put up 10+ points from his legs alone.

RBs

Ronald Jones III ($5,900)

The hottest fantasy news coming out of Tampa Bay’s first game of the Brady era was the new QB’s lack of chemistry with Mike Evans. While the Tampa Bay passing game should be fine in the long run, one surprising development coming out of week one was how much Bruce Arians relied on Ronald Jones. Despite the late offseason signing of Leonard Fournette, coach Bruce Arians insisted leading into week one that Ronald jones would lead Tampa’s backfield. Bruce held true to his promise and gave Jones 17 carries to Fournette’s 5 in week one. While Fournette will likely play a more impactful role in the Tampa Bay run game (specifically on third downs) as the season progresses, Ronald Jones should still see 15+ touches in week two vs a Carolina defense that saw a ton of turnover in the offseason.

Nyheim Hines ($5,500)

With Jonathan Taylor set to get the start in Indianapolis with Marlon Mack ruled out for the season, I think many are overlooking the performance Nyheim Hines put on during week one. The biggest knock on Taylor coming out of college was dropping passes and this seems to be where Hines excels. We know that Phillip Rivers loves to dump off the ball to his RB and I would prefer the pass-catching back in that offense.

Malcolm Brown ($5,200)

Forget the fact that Brown had a 100+ yd and 2 TD game last week. Please show me where I can get 20 touches for less than $7,500? The opportunity for the price is unmatched this week. While I expect to see Cam Akers to factor into the LAR backfield, there should be no shortage of touches for Brown in a Rams offense that likes to rely on the run to set up play action.

WRs

Diontae Johnson ($5,800)

This might be the lowest price tag you will get on Johnson this season, as he is ready to emerge as one of the more valuable WR2 in the game. Big Ben targeted Johnson 10 times in week one, but that only translated to 8.7 pts. The opportunity, talent, and value is there - I expect Johnson to translate that into scoring in week two.

Robert Woods ($6,700)

The Kupp/Woods duo in Los Angeles is one of the better WR 1-2 punches in the game right now. Most fantasy analysts see Kupp as the “1” in that pairing, which is supported by a higher price week in and week out. However, let’s look at the stats since the duo was established in 2017:

• Woods: 238 REC on 362 TGT for 3239 YD and 13 TD

• Kupp: 200 REC on 289 TGT for 2636 YD and 21 TD

Kupp’s TD total offers a huge boost to hid FPPG but in DFS I look for opportunity and value. Woods is clearly Jared Goff’s number one target and his price does not reflect that yet, even after three seasons.

Tre’Quan Smith ($5,000)

One of the angles DFS players will look to capitalize on this week is cashing in on the Drew Brees’ passing targets that have been vacated by Michael Thomas’ injury. Most will look to Emmanuel Sanders who is boosted to WR1 on the depth chart, but I think its worth looking a bit deeper down the roster. While Sanders will likely see more targets, he is not necessarily getting additional snaps. The player who will most benefit in terms of added playing time is Tre’Quan Smith - who has 10 TD in his first two seasons in New Orleans on just 70 targets. He seems like a nice upside play this week to score a TD on an extremely low price.

TEs

Logan Thomas ($4,700)

Thomas was Dwayne Haskins’ favorite target in week one, but still managed to stay under the fantasy radar with four catches on his eight targets. Tight end is the position to go cheap on this week, with not a ton of compelling plays towards the higher price tags. I like Thomas to produce value and free up some salary for other positions.

Jared Cook ($6,200)

With Michael Thomas out for week two, most DFS players are looking at Emmanuel Sanders to inherit Thomas’ target share. I think there is value to zagging while others zig, which leads us to Cook as a valuable DFS play this week. The opportunity is already there given the price tag and should only increase with increase in his target share.