NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 14 (Season Finale!)
We are closing in on the end of an improbable NFL regular season and have reached the season finale of weekly DFS value plays. I am going to wind down for the holidays and typically do not like picking fantasy winners in the final weeks of the season, given potential for resting starters. That being said, I am extremely grateful we got through an entire NFL fantasy season (relatively) unscathed by the COVID-19 pandemic. We have seen several postponements and re-schedules, but most importantly - all the games have been played and all the players are healthy.
Before we get into picks for Week 14, I wanted to share a few wins we have had in the DFS Value column this year:
We were on DK Metcalf early as a breakout WR and on the the premier deep threats in the NFL.
We taught the lesson of compassion. Giving up on David Montgomery after a few bad weeks, placing him in the DFS Graveyard, then RESURRECTING him for two great weeks of 3x + value.
We did our best to deliver consistency week-in and week-out, achieving at least 2x value on 30%+ of our picks.
We were on top of some great value performances of the season from the likes of:
QB: Justin Herbert (5.1x, Wk 7), Cam Newton (3.5x, Wk 1)
RB: Jamaal Williams (3.7x, Wk 7), Gio Bernard (3.3x, Wk7, David Montgomery (3.4x, Wk 12 + 3.7x, Wk 13 + ),
WR: Calvin Ridley (3.8x, Wk 1), Robby Anderson (3.5x, Wk 1), CeeDee Lamb (3.6x, Wk 4) Corey Davis (3.5x, Wk 8)
And of course, the legend Taysom HIll, lining up at TE (5.4x, Wk11)
It would be dishonest to just highlight the good, without acknowledging some of the bad. I definitely came up short on some key areas this year.
I could NOT figure out the Tight End position. Mistakenly crowning Dalton Schultz and Logan Thomas both as the next great breakout tight ends, only to be dissappointed. I stopped projecting TE value plays after Week 8, with the exception of Taysom Hill.
18 of my picks were just abysmal busts, getting less than 0.5x value - including picking all time bad performances from typically solid players: Derek Carr (0.6pts in Wk12), Jerick McKinnon (-0.1 pts in Wk7), and Diontae Johnson (-0.2 pts in Wk 5).
While about 32% of picks delivered 2x+ value, I had 35% of picks deliver less than 1x value. That can be the case when you take big swings on low-salary guys, but ideally that number is down next year.
So there you have it - the 2020 DFS Value season by-the-numbers. I hope I was able to win you a little money by surrounding your studs with some of these value picks. Enjoy our final entry into the series this year:
QB
Mitchell Trubisky $6,800
Would I want Trubisky under center for my favorite NFL team? Absolutely not. But I think that Mitch provides a decent floor and high-ceiling as a value QB play due to his potential for a rushing score.
Jalen Hurts $6,600
What do we know about Jalen Hurts as an NFL QB? Not much. Perhaps the only two things we know are 1) He is a better option than Carson Wentz and 2) Hurts has some potential scoring points with his legs. I am willing to take a gamble for a low price on a Hurts rushing TD.
RB
Wayne Gallman, Jr. $6,000
The Giants have leaned on Gallman heavily over the last four weeks, giving him the ball 72 times over that span. This is compared to the 37 rushing attempts Gallman received in his first six games. You will not get this kind of usage from an established leader in a backfield for $6,000 or less.
Ronald Jones III $6,300
I am crowning Ronald Jones as the most underrated and underappreciated RB in the NFL this season. Would you have guesses that Jones is 4th in league rushing yards? Did you know he is 4th in YPC among RBs with at least 100 attempts? Jones has even seen some usage in the passing game with 40 targets this year. Priced as RB17 this week, RJIII is being straight up disrespected. Expect a big game and additional usage in the passing game with Fournette ruled out.
DeAndre Washington $4,800
Myles Gaskin: out. Matt Brieda: out. Salvon Ahmed: out. Do the Dolphins have any one with a pulse in their backfield? Enter DeAndre Washington. This is purely a situation where dirt-cheap pricing meets opportunity, considering Washington’s 4 years in Oakland were less than appealing. One thing we do know is that rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa will need Washington this week to A) take the load off of the passing game and B) bail him out as a safety valve on broken plays.
J.D. McKissic $5,300
With Antonio Gibson ruled out, McKissic is a great option as a PPR threat. Over the last 4 weeks, McKissic has run more receving routes than any other RB. And that is with a healthy Antonio Gibson! Expect similar usage as a receiving threat today and added value getting some carries and potential goal line usage with Gibson out.
WR
KeKe Coutee $5,600
With Will Fuller suspended last week, most of the fantasy world (including myself) were counting on Brandin Cooks for a big week. We quickly found out that Deshaun Watson’s new #1 target would be Coutee rather than Cooks. With Cooks ruled out for Week 14, I expect another big week for Coutee - though I expect most of the DFS world will think the same.
Marvin Jones, Jr. $6,200
I am not sure that there is a less sexy name in DFS than Marvin Jones, Jr. This is for a few reasons: 1) I am talking about his literal birth name being Marvin 2) Jones is an 8-year vet on a medicore offense 3) Jones has been a lock for solid seasons every year of 700-900 yards and 6-8 TD. He is the definition of consistency but also not the flashy-type guy you tend to slot into a DFS lineup. Until today! Matthew Stafford has relied heavily on MArvin Jones over the last four weeks - during that time frame Jones has been the fifth most targeted WR in the NFL. He is priced as the WR26 this week in a game vs a high-octane Arron Rodgers-led Packers’ offense. The Lions are going to have to throw the ball 40-50 times to hang in this game AND…Kenny Golladay has been ruled out. Fire up stupid, sexy Marvin Jones, Jr.
Terry McLaurin $7,200
If Ronald Jones is the most undervalued RB in the NFL, then count Terry McLaurin as his counter-part among NFL WRs. Despite a QB carousel in Washington, McLaurin currently sits in the Top 10 in WR targets, yards, 20+ yd catches, and YAC. You slot McLaurin in your DFS lineup most weeks because he is a Top 10 WR with Top 5 WR talent who is priced outside the Top 15.
Chad Hansen $5,100
Why not end the season finale with a bang? Who is Chad Hansen? I’m not really sure, but what I DO know is that Hansen caught his first NFL pass in three years last week. Actually, he caught 5 of them for 100+ yards. As mentioned above, Deshaun Watson needs to throw to someone with Fuller suspended and Cooks ruled out. If Hansen can replicate (or dare I say improve?) on his Week 13 performance, he delivers 3x value.