Don’t Bet on Super Bowl MVP Unless It’s a QB or This 100-to-1 Pick.

Feb 12

Every year, a lot of money will be placed on non-QBs to win MVP based on (what looks like) appealing odds for high-profile players. But let’s be honest, a QB will win the Super Bowl MVP - here’s why:

11 of the last 15 Super Bowl MVPs have been QBs.

It’s simple. You lead your team to a Lombardi Trophy under center and you are the MVP - unless the game is downright weird.

The bar for Super Bowl MVP QB stat lines isn’t even all that high. These solid (but not super impressive) stat lines have won MVP in the last 15 years.

25/38, 247 PaYds, 1 TD, 1 INT
19/34, 255 PaYds, 2 TD, 1 INT
32/39, 288 PaYds, 2 TD, 0 INT
30/40, 296 PaYds, 1 TD, 0 INT
26/42, 286 PaYds, 2 TD, 2 INT

In a league where the bar for a great game performance by a QB is typically 300 yards and 3 +TD, it’s eye-opening to see almost half of the recent MVP-winning QBs to have good-not-great games.

Seriously, they want to give the award to a QB.

This is not a stat-driven point, but I think it’s a fair one.

80% of the vote for MVP comes from members of the Professional Football Writers of America. While they have nothing on self-important BBWA Hall Of Fame voters, they are still writers. They do have bias. They are looking for a story. And they might miss a few plays checking out the catering spread and pounding shrimp cocktail.

In addition to the typical “star QB leads his team to a championship” story, let’s take a look at the potential stories the writers can dig into this year:

Beloved 34 year-old veteran leads his new team to a title in first season with new team, finally getting his ring after a decade-plus as the loyal face of a pathetic franchise.

A year removed from tearing his ACL, one of the league’s bright stars leads his team to a Cinderella season, establishing himself as the future of the NFL.

They want to give the award to a QB. Embrace it. And bet on it. Not convinced? Fine….

A running back has not won Super Bowl MVP since 1998.

The odds on both starting RBs might seem tempting (+2500 & +2800), but don’t get lured in. Recent history shows that even a solid 100+ Yds/ 1+ TD game won’t ensure you’re an MVP candidate.

Since Terrell Davis’ 1998 Super Bowl MVP where he rushed for 150+ yards and 3 TD, there have been several solid performances that didn’t sniff MVP, including these stat lines:

152 Total Yds, 2 TD
133 Total Yds, 2 TD
133 Total Yds, 1 TD
121 Total Yds, 1 TD
110 Total Yds, 1 TD
106 Total Yds, 1 TD

It ain’t happening, so quit askin’!

Even though there’s been 4 WR to win Super Bowl MVP in the last 20 years, the game has to be REALLY weird.

Our recent-ish WRs to win Super Bowl MVP include: Julian Edelman, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and Deion Branch.

Not only did these players need solid performances, but they needed strange games where 1) their QB put up a stinker 2) their QB fed them the ball (and only them) and 3) nobody outshined them – let’s take a look:

Deion Branch (Super Bowl XXXIX):

Branch had 11 REC for 133 Yds while other Patriots WR had a combined 5 REC for 36 Yds, which made the perfect storm for…..
Tom Brady threw for 236 Yds and 2 TD (0 INT). Not a bad stat line, but since Deion Branch was the main attraction with little supporting cast – Brady’s yardage suffered.
Branch actually did have solid MVP competition from teammates Corey Dillion (101 total yards and a TD) and Rodney Harrison (7 Tackles, 1 Sack, 2 INT) – which makes him even a more unlikely MVP here.

Hines Ward (Super Bowl XL)

Ward put up 5 catches for 123 Yds and a TD while Ben Roethlisberger completed 9 of 21 passes for 123 Yds, and 0 TD (Is this not the most Big Ben statline ever?)
Read that again. Big Ben: 123 passing and 0 TD. Hines Ward: 123 receiving and 1 TD.
I am pretty sure this was not only an all-time weird Super Bowl stat line, but an all-time weird NFL game stat line. (Ward’s sole TD came from WR Antwan Randle El.)

Santonio Holmes (Super Bowl XLIII)

We won’t spend much time here because Holmes’ game-winning TD with less than a minute left was an all-time clutch moment, BUT….
Don’t you think the writers would have paid a littttttle more attention to the QB that threw the pass if that wasn’t his only TD pass of the game? (Big Ben is the WR gift that keeps on giving).

Julian Edelman (Super Bowl LIII)

One of biggest dud games in Super Bowl history. What was expected to be a high-scoring game turned into a 13-3 dogfight void of any outstanding performances outside…Julian Edelman.
I want to say that Julian Edelman was the only Patriot WR to catch a pass but I think that Cordarrelle Patterson was a WR instead of RB at the time.
That being said, Brady fed Edelman and Gronk and nobody else (16 of his 21 completions) without throwing for a TD.

If you bet on a WR to win MVP, you are going to need a low-scoring, funky game where the QB does nothing of significance. I know that +500 odds on OPOY Cooper Kupp looks juicy, but you will also need Matt Stafford to do just about nothing but pass to him. It’s possible, just not likely.

Defensive MVPs also only happen in weird games (and it probably needs to be a blowout).

4 defensive MVPs in the last 21 years. The game-winning QBs in those games combined for 5 TD, averaging 178 yards passing per game. All were double-digit victories (combined for a +103 point differential) and 3 were downright blowouts.

Von Miller and Malcolm Smith both had phenomenal games, but they also had no significant offensive performances to compete with.

Ray Lewis has arguably the worst statline for a Super Bowl MVP (5 Tackles, 3 Passes Defended – that’s it). And Dexter Jackson won MVP based off 2 INT when his own teammate also had 2 INT on top of returning both for a TD.

The odds of a defensive player winning SB MVP this year are slim. The odds of you picking the correct defensive player are even slimmer. It is a bet to avoid unless you want to sprinkle a few bucks on a player with excellent odds (more on that in a second).

The Verdict

Betting on a position player or defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP is likely a losing proposition. Pick a QB and sweat it out.

If you are planning to bet Bengals ML, I actually prefer the +255 odds on Joe Burrow to win MVP better. A decent odds boost for a likely MVP outcome if the Bengals win.

If you have to bet outside-the-box, I like +10000 odds on Trey Hendrickson to win MVP. He has been a top-5 pass rusher in the league this year, so if you’re going to throw a fiver on a defensive player – why not him? I would expect his MVP odds to be much lower considering he’s one of the best players on the field? He is double the odds to win MVP as Evan McPherson (a kicker has never won!!!).

Matthew Simeone