NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 7

If you read last week, I put 5 different players on notice. I was taking a chance on them, after being burned in the past, and only one player redeemed himself: Ronald Jones. All of the others (Daniel Jones, David Montgomery, James Robinson, and Dalton Schultz) are officially DEAD TO ME for not reaching the required 3x value benchmark.

Other than adding to the graveyard, an all-around tough week 6. I was not on any of the big value plays like Justin Jefferson and Deandre Swift and had a few DUDS in Mattison and Gesicki. On to week 7!

QB

Matthew Stafford $7,300

I wrote about Stafford’s consistency last week and he proceeded to put up his first sub-17 pt game of the season. This week, Stafford plays against the worst passing defense in the league. I am officially putting Stafford on graveyard notice. If Stafford doesn’t hit 3x value this week, he will be added to a headstone.

Justin Herbert $7,500

Herbert provides the most value of the Top 10 priced QBs this week. He has been nothing short of stellar in his first four starts and will need 23 pts to hit 3x value. He has done just that in 3 of his 4 starts.

RB

This week we are looking at three guys who take over their respective backfields due to injuries. They will all likely be highly owned, but I think you have to put at least one of them in your lineup to free up some cap space for elite players. All three are under $6,000 and I expect them to see significant touches.

Giovani Bernard $4,800

Why does it feel like Gio Bernard has been in the league for 15 years? The Bengal’s veteran is surprisingly just 28 years old, and has spent his 8 seasons spelling the likes of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Jeremy Hill, and Joe Mixon. After 8 seasons in the NFL, it feels like we know what type of RB Bernard is: good pass catcher, change-of-pace back, gets about 10 touches per game, a decent flex in a PPR league when in a bind. But did you know this? Gio Bernard averages almost 20 PPG when Joe Mixon does not play? Bernard should see high ownership this week but is worth the price.

Jamaal Williams $5,000

Vegas expects HOU vs GB to be the highest scoring game of the week. A shootout typically means we will see playcalling skew towards the passing game, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing for Jamaal Williams. In his career, Williams has scored 7 RecTDs and 8 RuTDs along with a 78% catch rate. Williams may even benefit from a pass heavy game and I expect him to hit a floor of 10 pts.

Jerick McKinnon $5,500

McKinnon might qualify as an in-season post-hype sleeper in week 6. When the 49ers backfield was banged up early in the season, McKinnon was a hot commodity as a free-agent in many fantasy leagues. In his two starts leading the SF backfield, McKinnon put up 174 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs. Solid numbers for any RB, but perhaps lacking some of the big plays that the speedster is known for. Since then, McKinnon has seen limited touches with Mostert returning from injury, but will once again get the start in Week 7. McKinnon will face a stout New England run defense, but I expect him to get 20+ touches which gives him an opportunity to bust out a big play.

WR

Robby Anderson $6,400, Jamison Crowder $6,300, & CeeDee Lamb $6,200

3 players who are among the Top 10 in the NFL for targets per game, but priced outside the Top 20 WR this week. If any of these guys can add a few TDs to their resume, they are EASILY a Top 10 WR.

• Anderson is 4th in REC, 2nd in RecYds, and 2nd in 20+ yard plays, yet he has just one TD. He is putting up To 5 WR production at the price of a WR25.

• Crowder has been a PPR machine in his 4 games this season: with at least 7 catches in every game and 3 100+ yd games. (UPDATE: Crowder looks to be out for week 6!)

• Lamb was seeing a lot of big play looks with Dak, and the looks have not stopped since Dalton took over QB duties for the ‘Boys. Dalton targeted Lamb 11 times last Sunday. He still leads the league in 20+ yard receptions, just needs to get into the endzone.

Tre’ Quan Smith $5,300

I think Smith will be a highly owned player in week 7 with Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders ruled out. I typically would look to fade him in favor of a Jared Cook or even pay up for Alvin Kamara, as I analyze where the touches should go. However, I think Tre’Quan Smith has legit talent as a WR2 and has a knack for the end zone on limited opportunites during his New Orleans tenure.

Denzel Mims $4,500

It looks like Jamison Crowder is unlikely to play, which will leave the worst WR crops in football to rely on their 2020 second-round pick. It’s not usually my style to rely on rookie WRs, especially in their first game, but who else will the Jets rely on? Braxton Berrios? Jeff Smith? Breshad Perriman? Mims is likely the most talented of the bunch so why not take a chance on a $4,500 player and fill the rest of your lineup with studs?

TE

I cannot pick good tight end value plays to save my life this year. Pay up for Kittle OR stack a tight end with your QB. I might add myself to the graveyard due to my inability to find value at this position.