NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 6
We are coming off an absolutely miserable week 5, which is hardly worth recapping. We were on our way to the play of the week with Kyle Allen putting up 10 pts early until he got held out of the game with a concussion. Other than that, we hit nice value on my boy Myles Gaskin and missed on nearly everyone else.
I am dejected, despondent, disconsolate, disappointed, dispirited, demoralized (shout out thesaurus.com) and downright HEATED. So here is what we’re doing this week. In addition to my weekly value picks, I am putting the following players on my “DO OR DIE” list. These are guys that I have picked over the last five weeks and burned me. I feel like they’re good plays this week but could not in good conscious put them in the “official” value column due to their past transgressions. Any player below who does not hit 3x value this week is BANNED from the rest of the season:
Daniel Jones $6,700 (Previously selected in Week 2 and scored 8.7 pts)
Ronald Jones III $5,800 (Previously selected Week 2 and scored 9.7 pts)
David Montgomery $5,900 (Previously selected in Week 4 and scored 9.2 pts)
James Robinson $6,500 (Previously selected in Week 5 and scored 7.5 pts)
Dalton Schultz $5,200 (Previously selected in Week 5 and scored 1.1 pts)
QB
Matthew Stafford: $7,300
The veteran QB has been Mr. Consistent through his first 4 games with 17+ points in each outing. The Detroit offense still centers around his arm, and Stafford has a great matchup this week against a Jacksonville team that gives up points, but can also hang in games.
Kyle Allen: $6,400
I am back on Kyle Allen for all the same reasons as last week! I feel like this is my mulligan, as Allen was on a roll before being knocked out last week. Let’s hope for another rushing TD to guarantee 2x value.
RB
Alexander Mattison: $7000 & Phillip Lindsay: $5,100
These picks are all about opportunity with Dalvin Cook and Melvin Gordon out this week. Mattison should be a top 5 RB this week and the price is too good to pass up. He proved he can spell Dalvin Cook against Seattle last week, and has a favorable matchup vs Atlanta in week 6. Phillip Lindsay has a tougher task against a stout New England defense, but has proven as a reliable option in the Denver backfield in the past - so should see significant touches.
Myles Gaskin: $5,700
The only bright spot in my dreadful week 5: Myles Gaskin. Emerging as the clear #1 option in the Miami backfield, Gaskin had 21 touches for 91 yards and a TD last week. Despite being used sparsely in the first two weeks of the season, Gaskin is currently fifth in targets among all RBs. I love the versatility Gaskin provides, especially this week against the worst team in football. There is nobody better under $6,000 than Gaskin this week.
WR
Allen Robinson: $7,000
Robinson is a bigger name than I typically like to feature here but his value this week stems from low pricing for elite production. The Chicago star WR currently has the most targets in the NFL and is turning those into solid production (6th in REC, 8th in RecYD). The only thing eluding Robinson is touchdowns, which is bound to happen as Robinson is 4th in the NFL on 20+ Yd receptions. I think he breaks off a big one this week.
Chase Claypool: $5,500
After his monster game in week 5, Chase Claypool has been a very polarizing figure in fantasy circles. Some view him as a flash-in-the-pan, others see him as a future top 5 WR. This week all of that is irrelevant. The facts are that, with Diontae Johnson ruled out, Claypool is the #2 receiver in an offense that passes 30+ times per game. Cleveland has been among the worst teams against WR through 5 weeks. Cleveland also scores a ton of points on offense, so Pittsburgh will need to sling it. I think Claypool is a no-brainer this week. I am hoping some will fade him based on his breakout performance last week.
Gabriel Davis: $4,900
I had Gabe Davis as a value play in week 3 and he put up 10 pts at a $4,600 price tag. Since then, Davis has put up 9ts in week 4 and 8 pts in week 5,. Josh Allen is trusting Davis more every week, shown by his 9 targets in week 5. The price is still low and I think Davis is a lock for 10 pts this week.
TE
Mike Gesicki: $5,600
As the #2 option for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gesicki has seen solid playing time but has not necessarily turned the opportunities into consistent production. That being said, Gesicki is priced as the #10 tight end this week, which is just too low given he leads the NFL with 11 red zone targets.
TJ Hockenson: $5,700
If you are looking for a player with a high floor at a reasonable price, look no further than TJ Hockenson. In his four games this season, Hockenson has scored 14, 8, 7, and 10 pts. I like Hockenson’s upside this week against a porous Jacksonville defense. Stack him with Stafford!